The development of energy prices is one of the central economic issues of our time. Whether for private households, small and medium-sized enterprises, or large industrial companies, few cost items are as volatile and at the same time as strategically important as electricity, gas, and heat. Those who understand energy cost trends can not only plan more effectively but also take proactive measures to mitigate risk.

This article analyzes how energy prices are likely to evolve over the next 10, 20, and 30 years, the structural drivers behind these developments, and which concrete measures already make sense today. These are not precise forecasts, but realistic scenarios based on political, technological, and economic developments.

The Starting Point: Why Energy Prices Are Structurally Different Today Than in the Past

Energy prices in recent years have exhibited significant volatility. However, the current phase represents more than just a temporary crisis. The structural transformation toward a decarbonized energy system is fundamentally changing pricing mechanisms.

In the past, stable supply contracts and large fossil-fuel power plants dominated the system. Today, volatile procurement markets, carbon pricing, grid expansion, and investments in renewable energy shape the cost structure.

The main components of energy prices include:

• Procurement or generation costs
• Grid fees
• Taxes, levies, and surcharges
• Carbon pricing components

These components do not develop uniformly, and this divergence is precisely what shapes long-term trends in energy costs.

The Key Drivers of Energy Prices in the Coming Decades

1. Carbon Pricing and Climate Policy

Rising carbon costs for fossil fuels are a central instrument of the energy transition. The goal is to make coal, oil, and gas economically less attractive.

In the short term, this leads to higher costs for gas and heating customers. In the long term, however, it accelerates investment in renewable energy, which can help stabilize overall price levels.

2. Grid Expansion and Infrastructure Costs

The energy transition is not only about generation, but also about infrastructure. Electricity grids must be expanded, digitalized, and stabilized. The growing use of electric vehicles and heat pumps further increases demand on the system.

Grid fees could therefore remain a significant cost driver in the medium term — even if wind and solar power become cheaper to produce.

3. Electrification of the Economy

More and more sectors are being electrified — from industry to building heating systems. Electricity is becoming the dominant primary energy source.

This development leads to rising demand, but also to efficiency gains and economies of scale in renewable energy production. Long-term electricity prices will largely depend on the balance between the speed of expansion and demand growth.

4. Technological Innovation

Photovoltaic modules, battery storage systems, electrolyzers, and heat pumps are continuously becoming more efficient and more affordable.

Technological progress has a long-term dampening effect on prices — provided supply chains remain stable, and investment conditions remain predictable.

Energy Prices in 10 Years (Until Around 2036): The System Transition Phase

Over the next decade, we will remain in a transition phase. High investments in grids, storage, and system flexibility will coincide with growing electrification.

Electricity Prices

Electricity prices are likely to stabilize at a moderate level. Renewable energy reduces generation costs, but grid charges and overall system costs exert upward pressure.

Dynamic electricity tariffs will gain importance. Consumers with flexible demand will be able to actively manage their costs.

Gas Prices

Gas is likely to become structurally more expensive. Carbon costs, declining demand, and potentially rising infrastructure costs per remaining consumer may increase the price per kilowatt-hour.

Heating Costs

Heat pumps will become increasingly widespread. Heating costs will then depend more heavily on electricity prices than on gas market developments.

Energy Prices in 20 Years (Until Around 2046): Electrification as the New Normal

In twenty years, the energy transition is likely to be well advanced. Electricity will be the dominant energy medium.

Electricity Price Development

Renewable energy has very low marginal costs. At the same time, substantial costs arise for system stability, reserve capacity, and storage.

Energy prices may become more time-dependent: lower prices during periods of high renewable generation and higher prices during scarcity.

Gas and Fossil Fuels

Fossil fuels will play a significantly reduced role. Fixed costs will be distributed among fewer consumers, potentially increasing individual prices.

The Role of Hydrogen

Hydrogen could supply industrial processes and heavy-duty transport. However, production costs will remain a key determinant of competitiveness.

Energy Prices in 30 Years (Until Around 2056): The Maturity Phase of the Transformation

In three decades, the energy system could be largely decarbonized.

Potentially Lower Generation Costs

Economies of scale in wind, solar, and storage technologies could significantly reduce pure production costs.

Persistent System Costs

At the same time, grid maintenance, resilience against extreme weather events, and digital infrastructure will continue to drive costs.

Three Realistic Scenarios

• Optimistic Scenario: Rapid technological innovation, efficient regulation, and moderate energy prices.
• Baseline Scenario: Stabilization at a medium level with periodic fluctuations.
• Risk Scenario: Delays, geopolitical uncertainties, and higher capacity costs.

Development by Energy Source at a Glance

Electricity Price Trends

• Greater volatility
• Increased importance of flexibility
• Potential regional differences

Gas Price Trends

• Long-term decline in importance
• Rising relative costs

Heating Costs

• Strong dependence on building efficiency
• Heat pumps and district heating networks shape the cost structure

Mobility Costs

Electromobility makes electricity prices the central variable in vehicle operating costs. Load management (e.g., overnight charging) reduces total costs.

How Households and Businesses Can Hedge Against Risk

Regardless of the scenario, certain measures are almost always economically sensible:

• Improve energy efficiency
• Increase self-consumption through photovoltaic systems
• Use battery storage for load shifting
• Evaluate dynamic tariffs
• Implement energy monitoring systems
• Develop a long-term heating strategy
• Regularly review contractual arrangements

Businesses additionally benefit from structured procurement strategies and professional energy management.

Common Misconceptions in Energy Price Forecasting

• Focusing solely on the per-kWh energy rate
• Ignoring grid fees
• Underestimating carbon pricing
• Overestimating technological progress

Long-term energy planning requires a holistic perspective.

Act Strategically Now

Future energy cost trends clearly indicate that increased electrification, greater system complexity, and a growing need for flexibility will shape energy prices in the decades ahead. Those who invest today in efficiency, self-consumption, and intelligent energy management can significantly reduce long-term dependency and cost risks.

Learn how to position your building or business for the future at PVPro Solar GmbH.

Schedule your consultation today and take control of your energy future.

Will electricity prices fall over the next 10 years?

They may stabilize, but grid fees and investment costs are likely to support prices. Flexibility will increasingly determine the actual end price.

Will fossil fuels become permanently more expensive?

Very likely, especially due to carbon pricing and shrinking market shares.

How can I protect myself against rising energy costs?

Efficiency measures, self-consumption via photovoltaic systems, storage solutions, and smart tariff selection can sustainably control costs.